注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

春天里的凤凰阁

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

自画像:发结绳、脸结痂,手脚拿来可画画(脏的)。衣服巴满灰,裤子烂渣渣,哪个看到都害怕,沾到人家!职业:捡渣渣

网易考拉推荐

引用 中国降速也必将成为第一大国   

2012-07-14 23:39:07|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

【中国经济大幅度降速,是内外双重不利的因素所致。外因,出口受阻,外资流入减缓。内因,调整结构需要时间,内需拉动乏力,投资效率低下。为了降低通胀压力,减少房地产泡沫对经济、社会和政治稳定的伤害。但是,7.6%的增速,已经不易,比印度、巴西等金砖国家的速度高许多。关键的问题是看下半年和今后两年的表现。不管如何,中国追赶美国,成为一号大国的目标不变。短期降速,只是把追赶的时间推迟5年。中国的雄心,不仅是成为大国,而是成为富国。然而,想当富国,必须改变发展思路。不是靠便宜的劳动力和可以随便污染的环境,而是靠技术升级和人力资本的积累。中国还必须克服社会不公和腐败的问题,才能成为真正的强国。而这样的长征,还是非常漫长而痛苦的。】
   China Slows Down Sharply
   The National Bureau of Statistics just published its latest figures this morning, suggesting a sharp decline in China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
   Dropping by another 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter from the first this year, a rate of growth at 7.6% is still high by international standards, but it represents the lowest quarterly growth for the last three years in China.
   Efforts to contain high price inflation is blamed for this reduced rate of growth, but most commentators within China may have failed to realise that a wide spread economic slowdown has not only taken place in China, but also in many other countries.
   India, China’s closest competitor, has experienced even worse results. Its GDP rose only 5.3% in the first five months of the year. Other BRICS economies, including Russia and Brazil, have faced a similar problem.
   Slowdown of economic growth in China and elsewhere in the newly industrialised world is a consequence of Europe’s debts crisis and a sluggish recovery in the US economy. UK’s GDP contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011 and another 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012, pushing the country into a double-dip recession within 4 years of the crisis. The economic conditions in Greece, Spain, Italy, and now Cyprus, have been much worse than in the UK.
   Europe’s trouble is more than the Euro crisis. It is also about whether it is able to maintain its current generous welfare system without suffering from more serious consequences. In my view, without reforming the current rigid labour laws and welfare system, the UK and other European countries will be unable to recover fully from the current financial crisis and enter a sustained growth path again.
   This is because the world competition order has been fundamentally changed due to China’s ruthless re-emergence as a world economy superpower and the world financial crisis. Rapid growth in India, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies has re-enforced the transformation process of world order.
   China has become an integral part of the world economy since its accession to the WTO. The deepening of crisis in the US, EU and Japan, has affected China badly. The thought that China could have been decoupled from the crisis has proved na?ve.
   The slowdown of China’s economic growth has actually started from the second half of 2008. When its GDP growth touched its lowest point for a decade in the first quarter of 2009 at 6.3%, the industrialised world was mostly suffering from a severe recession.  
   To prevent China from entering into a similar recession, the Chinese government used a 4 trillion RMB stimulus package and another 30 trillion RMB of new bank credits to boost its economy. This huge injection of cash, however, has caused more trouble that it was intended to resolve. Consumer price index rocketed along with a huge housing bubble developing throughout the country.
   Without containing consumer price and house price inflations, China would have been devastated by a potentially lethal damage to its economic, social and political stability. The sudden slowdown in infrastructure investment, export growth, and the failure to stimulate domestic consumption, implies that China has been forced to say goodbye to its past near two-digit level of growth.
   Simultaneous worsening of both external and internal sentiments has been responsible for the accelerating slowdown of GDP growth, particularly in the first two quarters of 2012. However, 7.6% is not yet a disastrous outcome for China. The real challenge will still be in the second half of the year, and even into the next two years.    
   Weakening of internal economic sentiment has been a result of rising labour costs, structural and geographical labour shortage, population aging, continuous currency appreciation, rising prices of imported commodities, and rising electricity/energy inefficiency.
   China has to find a new way of growth, a way that will be supported not by traditional factors of cheap labour and easy pollution, but by technological upgrading and human resource development.
   Other new development instruments may have to be applied, including provision of low-cost and adequate housing to facilitate urbanisation, more provision of public medical care and education, cutting state monopoly, improving competition and efficiency in banking and other financial services.
   As a result of China’s slowdown, the rest of the world will suffer more. To break the vicious circle, a new world balance has to be found between the east and the west, so that both sides will reach a new equilibrium of their own growth trajectories.
   Finally, whatever happens in China, its ambition to catch up with and overtake the US remains unchanged. The only side effect of slow growth is that China may need another five more years than initially thought to make its dream come true.
   But, China’s dream, is probably not just to be number one of the world economy, it also wants to be a rich nation. However, without creating a more equal society and transforming its material- and energy-intensive industrial structure, the match for China to achieve its ambitious goal may become really long and painful.

  评论这张
 
阅读(12)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

在LOFTER的更多文章

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017